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How has the recent bull market affected various Bitcoin holders?

The positive market performance in the January 20-23 market (especially in the first two days) caused the price of Bitcoin to return to the level last seen in August 2022.

According to Valx and quoted by Ambcrypto, Bitcoin is currently trading at a price of more than $23,000. The website Glassnode, which is one of the leading analysis services in China, has analyzed the behavior of different groups of digital currency holders in a new report. This report examines the probability of realizing profits (and sales) by each of these groups.

In this report, the analysis of Bitcoin and an estimate of the percentage of coins that are in profit have been discussed. This analysis shows that the change in profitability that happened this month was one of the fastest changes among previous bear markets.

In the current bear market that started in November 2021, Bitcoin’s net realized profit and loss index has been affected by two massive selling events; First, the story of Luna and the Terra network, and the other is the fall of the FTX exchange. These two events caused a loss of 2.9% and 3.7% of the Bitcoin market cap, respectively.

Now, with the increase in the price of Bitcoin in recent days, the net profit and loss situation of the network has become positive again. Glass Nod wrote about this:

There is a promising sign of recovery after the terrible pressures from the market’s deleveraging in the second half of 2022.

Seven-day relative profit and loss chart

To determine the behavior of new Bitcoin investors, Glass evaluated ninety percent of the short-term supply of Bitcoin holders who are in profit. This measure shows that for the first time since November 2021, 97.5% of short-term holders of Bitcoin are in profit.

This should be considered a warning to investors, because when such a large majority of short holders are in profit, the probability of exiting (by selling) the category is much higher.

Chart of percentage of short term holders who are in profit
Chart of percentage of short term holders who are in profit

According to Glass Nod, the following conditions are needed to maintain this upward trend:

Therefore, the sustainability of the current trend depends on the balance between demand and new capital and the percentage of supply that intends to exit and save profits.

Regarding long-term holders, on the other hand, we are witnessing a change in behavior. After the bankruptcy of FTX, many of them were shaken in their belief that 314,000 bitcoins per month were withdrawn from the group’s assets. Now that the situation has improved, this category has registered a positive inflow of 100 bitcoins per month.

Graph of the net buying and selling trend of old Bitcoin holders
Graph of the net buying and selling trend of old Bitcoin holders
Pool coefficient of Bitcoin miners over time
Pool coefficient of Bitcoin miners over time

The last group of owners are miners, whose behavior has a significant impact on the market. Glass Nod wrote about them:

The relative income of miners has increased by 254% compared to the beginning of January, which shows how heavy the financial pressure on this sector was during the bear market.

What is the impact of the recent bull market on different Bitcoin holders? The first time in the blog Valx. appeared.


hello my name is amir; i love bitcoin and dogecoin 🎯

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