Attention all Bitcoiners! Are you ready for a wild ride in 2023?
According to the four-year cycle of Bitcoin, we’re entering the accumulation phase and it’s time to buckle up! Despite all the macroeconomic events, the China ban, the Tesla ban, inflation, market crashes, and insolvencies, Bitcoin just keeps on ticking. It’s almost as if it’s defying the laws of economics!
Think about it, Bitcoin has survived bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022, each lasting approximately 1 year and dropping by over 80%. But, it always seems to bounce back stronger than ever. It’s as if Bitcoin is playing a game of “Can You Handle This?” with the market and the market is losing.
What’s even more fascinating is that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin seems to be more predictable than the weather in March. According to the countdown on [**https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/**](https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/), the next halving is expected to occur in March 2024 and the cycle might repeat.
So, is Bitcoin the first asset in the history of mankind with calculable and foreseeable price movement? We might be onto something here! With its unalterable data for future supply, it’s possible that Bitcoin’s tokenomics and its cycle could be a stronger force for its price than any fundamental news.
What do you think? Let’s discuss it!
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The facts:
BEAR MARKET 2014 – Lasted appr. 409 days with the bottom at 86.5% in the red
BEAR MARKET 2018 – Lasted appr. 367 days with the bottom at 84.27% in the red
BEAR MARKET 2022?? – Lasted appr. 379 days with the bottom at 77.53% in the red
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More facts:
The Cycle Theory:
–> BTC Halving
–> Price Explosion Rally for 1.5 years
–> Bear market for 1 year
–> Accumulation/Sideways Phase for 1.5 years
–> next BTC Halving
–> rinse and repeat
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What really happened:
–> Bitcoin’s last halving was in May 2020
–> the price exploded from $9,500 to $69,000 in November 2021 (1.5 years)
–> After that Bitcoin entered a bear market with the lowest price being in November 2022 (1 year)
–> According to this model we should be in accumulation now until the halving which will occur approximately in the end of March 2024 according to the countdown on [https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/](https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/) .
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Don’t take financial advice from strangers on reddit. I don’t have any Bitcoin MBAs.
Wanted to downvote for being too hype. Then upvoted for bringing facts to the table.
See you at the top
I think it might be a possibility that as Bitcoin becomes more established and it’s halving cycle becomes more understood, the price effects of the halvings might decrease over time. I’m not saying it won’t still go up over time, I think it will, but the precise four year price cycle we’ve been observing might start to get arbitraged out of the market over time. So Bitcoin would basically just generally trend higher over time but not necessarily in such a precise pattern.
Whenever predictable patterns are found in the markets, they generally don’t last a super long time. They’re eventually arbitraged out of the market as they start to get priced into the market sooner and sooner. I don’t think Bitcoin is quite at that point yet, and I’m still expecting to see the price action of the halving cycle play out a few more times, but to a lesser and lesser degree over time until it’s pretty much completely arbitraged out of the market.
Definitely not saying this is certain to happen, it’s just a possibility based on the tendency of markets to pick up on patterns and arbitrage them out over time. I love Bitcoin and believe the price will continue to rise over time, maybe just not quite so predictably. Again, just my thoughts on a potential possibility, I might be wrong, but I’m curious to hear some thoughts on that possibility.
[deleted]
> the China ban
which one? the one in 2024? because there will be another one 😛
Good analysis ~ but what are your thoughts on the potential for an Order 6102B?
Bitcoin please go to moon, stop going sideways now 🎶🎵🎶🎵🎶🎵
OP why don’t you have any bitcoin? And why do you care about it if you don’t have any? What’s your interest then?